During the era of the Pharaohs, in ancient Nubia where the White and Blue Nile converged, stood a crucial temple, about 2,000 kilometers upstream from the Nile Delta. Every spring, the temple’s priests would gather at the riverbank to inspect the color of the water, an early form of forecasting with real consequences.
If the water ran clear, it meant the White Nile, flowing from Lake Victoria, was dominant. In that case, the annual flood would arrive late and weak, resulting in poor harvests. If the water was dark, the Blue Nile prevailed, signaling a strong flood, well-irrigated fields, and abundant crops. A greenish-brown hue suggested the Atbara River was the main contributor, which was considered a bad sign. It meant they should be expecting an early, destructive flood that could ruin the year’s yield.
Based on these observations, the Pharaoh could make decisions that shaped the fate of the kingdom in the coming months: whether to expect a bountiful tax harvest or prepare for austerity. Whether to draw on grain reserves or fund expansionist campaigns. As futurist Pierre Wack later noted, these temple priests were the world’s first long-term strategic forecasters. They grasped the difference between predictable trends and critical uncertainties.
Uncertainty is the default
Today, we live in a time when even the most carefully laid plans struggle to survive a few months. It’s only May, and yet the budgets and strategies companies carefully crafted last November are already outdated. Geopolitical shifts, market volatility, sudden trade policy changes, and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape at breakneck speed. Ours is a Never Normal world, where uncertainty is not the exception but the default.
Reading the color of the water no longer suffices, because the river itself keeps changing course. That’s why an increasing number of companies, like General Motors, Ford, Mattel, UPS, and Snap, have stopped issuing financial forecasts altogether.
In this context, looking ahead becomes a new kind of discipline. It’s no longer about predicting a single “correct” future. It’s about navigating between multiple possible scenarios. It’s about knowing which elements are relatively stable, and which are radically unpredictable.
Yesterday’s leadership
Peter Drucker once said, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” He was right. But I’d go a step further: “...and with yesterday’s leadership.” In today’s world, leadership is no longer measured by the quality of the plan, but by the quality of the response. Agility is everything. Leaders need to know how to adjust course quickly and decisively as circumstances shift.
Italy provides a strong example of this adaptive mindset. Faced with two major challenges - the rising demand for European defense and a faltering auto industry - it chose to align the automotive, defense, and aerospace sectors more closely. Germany followed suit: Rheinmetall is now converting two auto plants in order to manufacture defense equipment.
Why should anyone be led by you?
Years ago, Rob Goffee, my mentor at London Business School, helped me view leadership in a completely new light. I vividly recall the first time I watched him open a board session at one of the world’s largest banks with a single, disarmingly simple question: “Why should anyone be led by you?”
That question changed everything for me.
The room was filled with C-level profiles with brilliant resumes and impressive titles, but when Rob asked that question, a profound silence took hold. Because leadership isn’t about status or authority. It’s about trust. It’s about authenticity. It’s about inspiring others, especially when the path forward is uncertain.
In the Never Normal, leaders will be judged not by how well they control the storm, but by how boldly they can lead through it. And by their ability to help others believe that, even amid chaos, the future is still something worth striving for.
In a world that never stands still, people aren’t looking for perfect leaders. They want real ones.
So perhaps the most important question any leader can ask themselves right now is also the simplest: “Why should anyone be led by you?” Now, more than ever. It is one of the many reasons why I wrote “The Uncertainty Principle – Riding The Waves of The Never Normal” - which you can pre-order here ahead of its publication on June 30 - to help the bold, visionary leaders of today understand how to reframe the Never Normal adversity into opportunities.
This is a repost from a piece that was first featured in Dutch in De Tijd.
